Sudden Impact wrote:

---

1)  Number of votes. 
Forget Green Ridge and forget East Mountain. Forget it. Both go to DOH.
'Hill Section'?  Forget it. DOH owns it.  By those numbers alone, Gary's pushing a rope uphill.  A big hill. He'd need virtually ALL of West and ALL of North End. Even if Gary is to win West and North, it won't be enough. Southside?  DOH.  Again.

Murphy wiped Shimkus up in GR, with Doherty and company working like mules on his behalf. There's a very small section of GR that's elitish, the rest despises the ground Doherty walks on. He drew barely above even with Gary in E. Mtn last time out. Doherty is behind in every poll taken, including his own, and there have been a dozen of them taken. His average approval rating? A scant 34%. Scross the board, he's looked at the white-collar's mayor.

2)  Late Announcement.
Gary needed to start running for mayor, at very least, TWO YEARS AGO.  Speak at council, speak SOMEWHERE. Consistently.  We, as citizens of Scranton have heard virtually zero from Gary until, what, two or three months ago? Way too late.  To unseat an incumbent mayor, one needs to act like a mayor-elect throughout the entirety of the incumbent mayor's present term.

Not where a midnight theft is the theme.  Doherty isn't the traditional politician. Show him an enemy and he'll show you his stash of weaponry available to whack him. He gets that respect. But, it's a respect cloaked in fraud. He's not the man behind the decision-making.  He's as much a puppet as any politician. Period. He's very disconnected from the people. His pool of 'commited' loyalist shrinks by the day. He's simply fvcked over too many people.   

3)  One newsrag in the tank for Chrissy.
(no more words needed)

But...............but, the Times' credibility is lower than Doherty's approval rating. It's not the player it once was. The people have a good handle on the Doherty-Times relationship. That cat has been out of the bag for 4 years now.  There's a solid "We've had enough" attitude throughout this city. The Times has had to lay people off and shrink it's own paper for God's sake. That's not the economy, the local retaliation against them. What other paper shrunk itself to save paper? None.

4)  FOP backing.
And this is the "No Kidding?" factor.  The backing of the state FOP doesn't say anything beside, "We want a new boss for our brothers in Scranton."  NO KIDDING! How many state FOP members vote in Scranton?  How many power democrats has DOH had at his mansion for..."dinner"?  You people think they're swapping recipes and looking at family albums? You think all FOP members statewide want to see DOH lose?

The word is "pervasive". These are working class, working people of the municipal kind. Importing the resources of a statewide organization imports with it all valuable connections. Police, by the way, arrest people, a lot of people. On the other hand, there are a lot of people who don't get arrested, a lot of them. A lot of cops 'turn their heads' to things that continue to operate knowing the cop might not turn his head tomorrow. Cops can go on a citation rampage is they want to. We all know that. Or, they can talk about keeping things status quo if Chris Doherty loses. It's leverage that only they have. It's a leverage pervasive to the point of imposing it to the benefit of the greater good. Old stuff, actually. Now, those aren't the words of the FOP, but for those of us living in the real world, they don't have to be.  Add that to the fact that blue collar loyalty is recognized without introduction or the need to explain what a fellow blue collar guy wants. Did I forget to mention that the FOP has printing and distributing resources of the expansive kind? The FOP has put itself in a position of promise without making one. It's stepped out into the political street, so it can't just stand there. It has to pull.

5)  No explanation as to how he will do a better job.
To his credit, Gary hasn't attacked DOH mercilessly. To his demise, Gary hasn't attacked DOH mercilessly. Gary has articulated ZERO solutions as to how he will right the wrongs. Why? Because Gary has no idea how to right the wrongs. He is hoping against hope that DOH's negatives will resonate enough for a win. IT WILL NOT HAPPEN!  It's like trying to defeat a skunk on the platform that you will piss less!

Your theory is baseless. DiBileo is working like a dog meeting with a different group of people almost nightly. He's far above council-speaker status, unless the issue is of substantial public importance. No such issue presents itself.  Realistically, we're living in a mythical Gotham City. Every political design of ousting an incumbent is drawn covertly as to accomplish the stealth of efficiency with a condiment of surprise as topping. The people behind Dibileo are not fools or freshman players. They know that position is everything and they'll position Doherty exactly where they need him to be at the exact right time.  

6)  Money.
Gary still needs to aim his financial resources at his family, as any man would and should.  Chrissy, an independently wealthy man to begin with, as a two-term seeker of a third term, has managed to keep his lifestyle on par with another re-election bid. No matter how he's done it, he's doing it. He's burying Gary in money and will continue to bury Gary in money. Like it or not, that's how it goes. See, it's not only republicans who do this.... 

The voters don't like his lifestyle. Third terms are rare. He's running against himself in the minds of half the voters. "Two terms is enough, give someone else a chance" is static thinking in these situations. Doherty has to sell his effectiveness in managing finances and economic balance. He's failed miserably at both. "Look, see that building being renovated" is not what people care about.  People don't live downtown, they drive through it. They all see the empty buildings and they all understand the construction is all state money given to crony players to kick half of it back. No third term for Doherty, he loses to a great politician but a stupid "person", himself.


Look.  When a political devil is confident enough to know that his tempted electorate is lazy enough to re-elect the devil it knows rather than elect the devil it doesn't know, the original devil wins!

Doherty is far from confident. Listen to him speak. He's struggling to believe what he's saying himself.  His tone is extremely defensive and self-incriminating. He's a fat cat with feathers sticking out of both sides of his mouth. The electorate is a lethargic and lazy group, I'll give you that, but elections like this stir them into a "group" frenzy and they don't want to be left out. Election day becomes a novelty that captures their "trainwreck" mentality long enough to go see what is going on and "vote while I'm there" attitude. The judgeship election will bump up the numbers by 20%, if not more. Doherty loses by 12 points. It's one of those, "the harder he tries, the worse it gets" elections."  He has nothing to back his play.  Brick and mortar? Maybe if it was in their neighborhoods and not downtown all the time.

The "devil" does not take; he tempts! 

There's more than one devil in this town who will have something to say about this election. Trust me.

Would I like to see Gary win one for the gipper?  Yes.
Do I think Scranton will be any different if he does?  Who knows?

It becomes different by default.  All of the reckless spending STOPS.

I wish both candidates good luck and good fortune.
But I cannot hate one or love one over the other.

Apparently, you don't live in Scranton, or you are unfamiliar with the history of this mayor.  The former indicts your ignorance on four counts of vagrancy and the latter convicts you of four counts of "Rose Colored Glass" syndrome.

Individual members of a society need to have a look in the mirror before words like "evil" escape their lips.

This is Scranton, we do 'evil' quite well. We love evil here. Remove the evil and we'd have a ghost town. We like/love/hate/worship political hangings here. I have the rope burns to prove it. In fact, we live for them. The political gallows instantly host three ropes that ominously swing in the wind like a pendulum swaying to the theme of Jaws. They are waiting for the necks of Doherty, Gatelli and Fanucci. 

They all swing on May 19th, the day this city slapped back at three ruthlessly corrupt dogs